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Abstract We present Young Supernova Experimentgrizyphotometry of SN 2021hpr, the third Type Ia supernova sibling to explode in the Cepheid calibrator galaxy, NGC 3147. Siblings are useful for improving SN-host distance estimates and investigating their contributions toward the SN Ia intrinsic scatter (post-standardization residual scatter in distance estimates). We thus develop a principled Bayesian framework for analyzing SN Ia siblings. At its core is the cosmology-independent relative intrinsic scatter parameter,σ_Rel: the dispersion of siblings distance estimates relative to one another within a galaxy. It quantifies the contribution toward the total intrinsic scatter,σ₀, from within-galaxy variations about the siblings’ common properties. It also affects the combined distance uncertainty. We present analytic formulae for computing aσ_Relposterior from individual siblings distances (estimated using any SN model). Applying a newly trainedBayeSNmodel, we fit the light curves of each sibling in NGC 3147 individually, to yield consistent distance estimates. However, the wideσ_Relposterior meansσ_Rel≈σ₀is not ruled out. We thus combine the distances by marginalizing overσ_Relwith an informative prior:σ_Rel∼U(0,σ₀). Simultaneously fitting the trio’s light curves improves constraints on distanceandeach sibling’s individual dust parameters, compared to individual fits. Higher correlation also tightens dust parameter constraints. Therefore,σ_Relmarginalization yields robust estimates of siblings distances for cosmology, as well as dust parameters for sibling–host correlation studies. Incorporating NGC 3147's Cepheid distance yieldsH₀= 78.4 ± 6.5 km s⁻¹Mpc⁻¹. Our work motivates analyses of homogeneous siblings samples, to constrainσ_Reland its SN-model dependence. 

We present a new calibration of the peak absolute magnitude of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) based on the surface brightness fluctuations (SBF) method, aimed at measuring the value of the Hubble constant. We build a sample of calibrating anchors consisting of 24 SNe hosted in galaxies that have SBF distance measurements. Applying a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we calibrate the SN Ia peak luminosity and extend the Hubble diagram into the Hubble flow by using a sample of 96 SNe Ia in the redshift range 0.02 <  z  < 0.075, which was extracted from the Combined Pantheon Sample. We estimate a value of H 0  = 70.50 ± 2.37 (stat.) ± 3.38 (sys.) km s −1 Mpc −1 (i.e., 3.4% stat., 4.8% sys.), which is in agreement with the value obtained using the tip of the red giant branch calibration. It is also consistent, within errors, with the value obtained from SNe Ia calibrated with Cepheids or the value inferred from the analysis of the cosmic microwave background. We find that the SNe Ia distance moduli calibrated with SBF are on average larger by 0.07 mag than those calibrated with Cepheids. Our results point to possible differences among SNe in different types of galaxies, which could originate from different local environments and/or progenitor properties of SNe Ia. Sampling different host galaxy types, SBF offers a complementary approach to using Cepheids, which is important in addressing possible systematics. As the SBF method has the ability to reach larger distances than Cepheids, the impending entry of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and JWST into operation will increase the number of SNe Ia hosted in galaxies where SBF distances can be measured, making SBF measurements attractive for improving the calibration of SNe Ia, as well as in the estimation of H 0 . 

Context. Persistent tension between low-redshift observations and the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB), in terms of two fundamental distance scales set by the sound horizon r d and the Hubble constant H 0 , suggests new physics beyond the Standard Model, departures from concordance cosmology, or residual systematics. Aims. The role of different probe combinations must be assessed, as well as of different physical models that can alter the expansion history of the Universe and the inferred cosmological parameters. Methods. We examined recently updated distance calibrations from Cepheids, gravitational lensing time-delay observations, and the tip of the red giant branch. Calibrating the baryon acoustic oscillations and type Ia supernovae with combinations of the distance indicators, we obtained a joint and self-consistent measurement of H 0 and r d at low redshift, independent of cosmological models and CMB inference. In an attempt to alleviate the tension between late-time and CMB-based measurements, we considered four extensions of the standard ΛCDM model. Results. The sound horizon from our different measurements is r d  = (137 ± 3 stat.  ± 2 syst. ) Mpc based on absolute distance calibration from gravitational lensing and the cosmic distance ladder. Depending on the adopted distance indicators, the combined tension in H 0 and r d ranges between 2.3 and 5.1 σ , and it is independent of changes to the low-redshift expansion history. We find that modifications of ΛCDM that change the physics after recombination fail to provide a solution to the problem, for the reason that they only resolve the tension in H 0 , while the tension in r d remains unchanged. Pre-recombination extensions (with early dark energy or the effective number of neutrinos N eff  = 3.24 ± 0.16) are allowed by the data, unless the calibration from Cepheids is included. Conclusions. Results from time-delay lenses are consistent with those from distance-ladder calibrations and point to a discrepancy between absolute distance scales measured from the CMB (assuming the standard cosmological model) and late-time observations. New proposals to resolve this tension should be examined with respect to reconciling not only the Hubble constant but also the sound horizon derived from the CMB and other cosmological probes. 

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. These new methods will become increasingly important in the coming years as the volume of survey data continues to increase, and as the degeneracy between predictions of different physical models grows. There are several perspectives on the divergences between the values of cosmological parameters, such as the model-independent probes in the late Universe and model-dependent measurements in the early Universe, which we cover at length. The White Paper closes with a number of recommendations for the community to focus on for the upcoming decade of observational cosmology, statistical data analysis, and fundamental physics developments